DairyNZ tools
DairyNZ Econ Tracker tool
The DairyNZ Econ Tracker is an online tool that brings you economic information relevant to the New Zealand dairy sector right now.
Designed for farmers and industry professionals, the DairyNZ Econ Tracker was created to support informed decision-making with data when it comes to financial planning, forecasting and budgeting.
The tool offers critical information on international market trends and New Zealand farm and sector economics from DairyNZ and other trusted third-party sources. Information within the tool is updated quarterly.
As of 16 September 2026, the Econ Tracker has been updated to reflect current economic conditions.
Key updates and forecast insights:
- Farmers are urged to prepare for tighter margins and potential feed shortages, ahead of expected El Niño conditions.
2026-27 outlook, strong El Niño scenario
| Farm working expenses | Breakeven milk price | Operating profit |
| $6.57/kgMS | $8.90/kgMS | $2.81/kgMS |
- National milk production is expected to dip rather than collapse, falling around 2.1% under a Strong El Niño and 3.3% under a Very Strong El Niño.
- Three scenarios were modelled, with the national breakeven milk price forecast to rise from $8.62/kgMS (baseline) to $8.90/kgMS (Strong El Niño) and $9.07/kgMS (Very Strong El Niño).
- The North Island is most exposed due to its reliance on rainfall and purchased feed, with breakeven milk prices forecast at $9.41-$9.56/kgMS under a Very Strong El Niño.
- Farmers are expected to respond to summer feed shortages by purchasing additional feed and adjusting herd management, with feed costs rising from $1.56/kgMS to $2.02/kgMS under a Very Strong El Niño.
- Elevated feed, fertiliser and operating costs are expected to persist into 2027/28, keeping profit margins tight despite a forecast farmgate milk price of around $9.50/kgMS.
- While the dairy sector is in a relatively strong financial position, and is experienced at managing volatility, farm expenses have increased significantly in recent seasons, putting increasing pressure on farms.
Discover the DairyNZ Econ Tracker tool
- Farm economics data: a snapshot of farm-level key performance indicators and important historical trends.
- Sector economics data: a high-level outlook on the New Zealand dairy sector.
- International markets data: key statistics from international markets influencing the New Zealand dairy sector.
Need support using the tool?
- Check out the frequently asked questions and answers
- Call our Farmer Information Service on 0800 4 324 7969 or email info@dairynz.co.nz
To better understand your farm system and its performance so you can easily compare against information in the DairyNZ Econ Tracker, check out DairyBase.
You might also be interested in:
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Economic Update September 2026
Explores scenarios and the projected impacts the upcoming El Niño event could have on the sector.
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Economic Update June 2026
Looks at early-season production statistics and changes to the DairyNZ Econ Tracker forecasts.
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Economic Update December 2025
Examining where the sector sits heading into the New Year.
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New Zealand Dairy Statistics 2024-25
See the latest statistics on milk production, herd improvement, animal evaluation and reproduction.
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DairyNZ Economic Survey 2024-25
The 2024-25 DairyNZ Economic Survey is the twentieth annual survey of New Zealand dairy farmers using dairy farm business data from DairyBase.
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DairyBase
Join DairyBase and access all the information you need to make confident and effective farm management decisions.
Podcast: $10 payout - now what? | Ep. 95
It’s been a season of shifting gears - high costs, cautious optimism, then a lift in milk prices and easing interest rates. With a new financial year just around the corner for many, Mark Storey and Paul Bird look at what’s on the horizon for next season.