Plan ahead for El Niño

While the general impact on New Zealand’s weather conditions is understood, uncertainty and unpredictability is also a key feature of El Niño. It is important to regularly review and keep up to date on weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks.

• Use reliable weather forecasting and climatic resources like Earth Sciences NZ and Metservice.
• Develop an El Niño plan that outlines your key risks, actions and response options.
• Include key triggers, where adjustments can be made, and when the plan will be reviewed.
• Think through what you'd do in a best-case, expected and worst-case season.
• Update your plans as conditions change, particularly through spring, summer and autumn.

Impacts on pasture and crop growth may require adjustments to maintain feed supply. Maintaining pasture condition is critical for both current and future productivity. Feed budgets and feed allocation calculators can help model supply and demand, identify pinch points early, and compare response options.

The aim is to protect pasture survival, cow condition and autumn recovery. 

Early Season: Focus on building feed reserves and setting up for potential summer deficits.

• Update feed budgets early and review regularly as conditions develop.
• Establish trigger points for action if conditions become drier or wetter than expected. Examples include:
  • Pasture growth tracking below budget.
  • Average pasture cover falling below target.
  • A flattening feed wedge.
  • Grazing before the 2.5-leaf stage.
  • Residuals dropping below target levels.
• Take opportunities to conserve surplus feed when conditions allow.
• Consider deferred grazing, forage crops, or other strategies to build feed reserves before summer moisture deficits develop.
• Bring forward nitrogen fertiliser applications where appropriate to make the most of available soil moisture and favourable growing conditions.
• Where its wetter, ensure that pastures and soils are protected from damage. Consider what options are available for standoff and ensure that additional feed is on hand.

Mid-season: Monitor closely for emerging feed deficits and respond early.

• Be aware of the increased risk of feed shortages during late spring and summer.
• Secure supplementary feed supplies well before shortages occur.
• Introduce supplementary feed early when deficits emerge rather than waiting for pasture covers to become critically low.
• Use milk price and feed cost information to assess the value of purchased supplements.
• Adjust rotation length and grazing management to maintain adequate residuals and protect pasture recovery.
• Avoid overgrazing during periods of reduced pasture growth to maintain pasture persistence and regrowth potential.

Late season: Protect pasture condition while preparing for winter.

• Continue reviewing feed budgets and comparing actual pasture growth with targets.
• Maintain pasture covers above critical levels through appropriate feed allocation and supplementary feeding.
• Remove supplementary feed promptly once pasture growth recovers and feed supply improves.
• Protect pasture persistence by avoiding overgrazing as growth rates decline.
• Assess likely winter feed availability and identify any potential shortfalls early.

Winter

• Understand the implications of any reduced pasture or crop yields on winter feed supply.
• Make provisions early to mitigate potential winter feed deficits.
• Where wetter conditions are experienced, protect soils and pasture from pugging and damage. Consider standoff options where appropriate.
• Ensure sufficient supplementary feed is available to support animals when grazing opportunities are restricted.

Throughout the season

• Regularly monitor pasture growth, average pasture cover, feed demand, and crop performance.
• Review feed budgets whenever conditions change significantly. Identify early where a feed deficit may outlast feed on hand.
• Take action early. Early interventions typically provide more options and reduce the impact of feed shortages on pasture condition and animal performance.

Where possible, more closely align stock numbers with expected feed supply. Manage feed demand and supply as outlined above. Review your plan and trigger points before cow lose condition.

• Where possible, prioritise feeding of highest-producing or most at-risk animals.
• Ensure production and stocking rate decisions maintain profitability under a range of feed supply scenarios. Be prepared to make early adjustments if feed availability or seasonal conditions deteriorate.
• Under extreme conditions and where feed shortages may be experienced, additional time may be required to achieve BCS gains. Where practical, consider drying off cows early to allow extra time for BCS gain.

Dependent on seasonal timing, consider culling earlier to better match feed demand with supply. If feed shortages develop nationally, processing capacity at the works may become constrained. Factor this into your culling decisions and timing.

• Cull cows are at risk of heat stress during summer transport, especially if they are still lactating. Drying off cull cows before transport will reduce the risk of heat stress and metabolic issues during transport. Make sure they have access to plenty of drinking water and shade until loading.

Extreme weather conditions can impact both animals and people.

Where hotter and drier:

• Ensure stock water systems can meet increased demand by checking pumps, pipes, and troughs, and prioritising reliable water access across the farm.
• Where possible, monitor stock water use daily to identify any leaks or reticulation system issues.
• Monitor livestock for signs of heat stress and have clear trigger points for taking action to reduce heat stress.
• Provide access to shade and minimise time spent in yards and other confined areas.
• Consider adjusting milking times, reducing time on concrete, and reviewing mob sizes to reduce heat load on animals and people.
• Assess practical infrastructure improvements such as shade structures, yard matting, sprinkler systems, or other cooling solutions.
• Ensure any cooling systems, such as sprinklers, are tested before hot weather arrives.
• During extended hot periods, monitor animal health, production, and reproductive performance closely.
• Pay particular attention to young stock. Maintain feeding levels, monitoring liveweight gains, and ensure they always have adequate access to water and shade.
• Review walking distances and avoid long walks in the heat.

Where wetter:

• Monitor animals closely for signs of lameness and metabolic stress.
• Discuss prevention and management options with your veterinarian.

Where warmer and more humid:

• Plan early for facial eczema risk and begin prevention measures before risk increases.
• Develop a facial eczema prevention plan with your veterinarian and begin protective measures before risk increases.
• Monitor pasture spore counts and local facial eczema risk closely.

• Plan for an extended irrigation season by ensuring irrigation systems are fully serviced and operating efficiently.
• Check water is being applied evenly and efficiently across your farm. Before the irrigation season starts, consider performing a bucket test to check irrigation system operational performance.
• Maintain water storage levels wherever possible. If supplied by an irrigation scheme, discuss early how the scheme plans to operate under El Niño conditions and any implications for water availability.
• Develop contingency plans for: Irrigation restrictions, Infrastructure failures and power outages.
• If water restrictions occur, prioritise irrigation on the most productive areas of the farm where it will generate the greatest return from pasture and crop production.
• In many situations, you're better to fully irrigate your priority areas than spread limited water across the whole farm.

• Ensure the farm team understands the potential impacts of El Niño and their role in the response plan.
• Regularly communicate risks, trigger points, and planned actions with the team.

Where hotter and drier:

• Schedule physically demanding tasks during cooler parts of the day where practical.
• Encourage regular hydration, sun protection, and rest breaks
• Monitor staff wellbeing during prolonged hot, dry, and windy conditions.

Where wetter

• Adjust work plans to reduce exposure to prolonged wet and cold conditions where practical.
• Monitor your team's fatigue and wellbeing during prolonged cold, wet conditions.
• Regularly communicate weather-related risks and safe work practices with the team.

Variability in pasture growth and livestock performance may reduce production and increase operating costs. Additional farm expenditure, such as supplementary feed purchases, may impact profitability.

• Use existing budgeting and planning resources to assess the impact of different scenarios on cash flow and profitability.
• Identify where costs can be managed without compromising long-term farm performance.
• Ensure production and stocking rate decisions maintain profitability under a range of feed supply scenarios.
• Seek advice from your bank, accountant or other trusted financial advisors.